FiveThirtyEight ' s predictions for each state primary, both for the Republican and the Democratic party nominations, were based on statistical analysis, not on the analyst's opinions. The leading Democratic candidate is State Auditor Nicole Galloway.Previous statewide and congressional district election results data from the The special election in Arizona could go down as the most expensive Senate race in 2020.Democrat Collin Allred flipped this suburban Dallas district with a 7-point victory over then-GOP Rep. Pete Sessions. The winner of the presidential election must win the majority of the electoral votes — that is at least 270 out of the 538 available. But because of Democratic gains among college-educated voters in these states, both have moved sharply toward the Democrats in recent years.In contrast, even though Ohio was the most important battleground in the In 2020, many political analysts think that Wisconsin, where Democrats will hold their national convention in 2020, could prove to be the tipping point state in a close election.For President Trump, the best path for re-election is the exact same one that handed him the presidency in 2016.But Trump got a major warning sign during the 2018 midterm elections when the three all-important Rust Belt states delivered big victories to Democrats.Democrats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan swept the races for Senate and governor, and picked up valuable House seats, defeating Trump-backed Republicans at all levels.Here are the latest headlines on the 2020 presidential race from Use the code below to put the Electoral Vote Map on your site. Young defeated Galvin by 7 points in 2018.Democratic Rep. Jared Golden’s 2018 victory came thanks to the state’s ranked-choice voting scheme, which allowed him to overtake then-GOP Rep. Bruce Poliquin despite trailing slightly in first-place votes. If Democrats win Florida, any one of the three Rust Belt states would secure the presidency, unless Trump can pick off another blue state that Democrats won in 2016.It’s obvious by playing with the interactive electoral map that if Democrats can flip all three states back to their column in 2020, then they can win the election (assuming they hold all of the other states Hillary Clinton won in 2016. Some key points from our most up-to-date predictions:The ratings are the product of a rigorous process, analyzing election results, registration trends, the national political environment, public polling and private survey data.

Dan Forest.Republican Mike Parson became governor in 2018 after Eric Greitens resigned. All of those states went to Trump in 2016, but there are some indications from early polling that at least some might be among the In recent modern elections, there have been a dozen or more truly competitive battlegrounds which could result in many various paths to 270 electoral votes.That’s changed in recent years as polarization has increased, resulting in red and blue strongholds with bigger victory margins. When the consensus forecast changes, the map will automatically change on your site too!Electoral Vote Map is an interactive map to help you follow the 2020 presidential election.

A protracted count is possible again in 2020.As Joe Biden has surged to a national lead, most high-quality polls show him with a significant lead in Michigan.Democrats called the 2nd District “Obamaha,” after the Illinoisan swiped an electoral vote there in 2008. We’ll be updating our ratings all the way through Election Day.

The latest from POLITICO’s 2020 Election Forecast: Ratings from Senior Elections Editor Steven Shepard for every national contest, from the 538 Electoral College votes to … Steve Bullock is term-limited, but Democrats have controlled the governorship in Helena for 16 years.Democrat Roy Cooper outperformed his party's presidential and Senate nominees in 2016 to win a narrow victory.

The core data employed were polls, which FiveThirtyEight aggregated for each state (while also considering national polls) using essentially the same method it had employed since 2008. Those favoring one party are rated as “likely” or “lean,” depending on the strength of the party’s advantage. Based on recent polling, his chances of winning the popular vote in 2020 are at least as challenging as they were in 2016.That suggests his best hope for re-election might be to once again assemble an Electoral College majority without winning the popular vote.Any review of the various 2020 Electoral College combinations should begin with Florida, a state key to all presidential fortunes since the If Trump were to win Florida again, Democrats would need to recapture three Midwestern states in the Rust Belt — or find substitutes — to win the presidency.

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