While these are useful in everyday life, it can lead to incorrect conclusions under scenarios of high complexity and uncertainty. We should focus on the decisions we can control and let go of the events and luck we cannot.Learning is critical to refining our decision-making process. Look and see how much was luck and how much was skill.Then you can work on doing everything you can to improve and increase the possibility, the percentage chance, of that happening again.You can’t always change luck, but you can always control your response to what happens and you can always keep working on your skill.When it goes well with someone else, instead of blaming luck, look at what really happened. Annie Duke notes that in most bets, we are actually betting against all alternative future versions that we have not chosen for ourselves.Duke recommends we keep Daniel Kahneman’s framework of System 1 and 2 in mind when reflecting on our decision making processes. Duke suggests we imagine our future self when making decisions to minimise the risk of temporal discounting. Two people with opposite beliefs can view the same thing and see the complete opposite (take a football game, the referee’s call, and the opinion of two opposing fans).Too often, we think of our beliefs as right and wrong.

You can know all the probabilities by heart. Taking each opportunity as a chance to learn can yield significant benefits that compound over time. We should not be quick to denounce ideas just because we dislike the source.In addition to the narrative that was realised in hindsight, we should keep an accurate representation of what could have happened.

Bad results come from that bad decision.Instead, we need to examine our decisions. We can’t control what everyone else does or the economy and so on.What we can do, however, is to use a process and make good decisions based on the information we have and can get. They may have made a good decision, but hit that rare chance it worked out bad.Instead of comparing yourself to others to feel good, start comparing yourself to yourself on how well you are giving credit to others, admitting mistakes, and being open-minded about possible reasons for outcomes (and other’s beliefs and viewpoints).Thinking in bets also helps you with the comparison, because it’s not right or wrong, but levels of confidence, and you can then examine each other’s level of confidence, what we got right, and where we went wrong.Having others involved in the information gathering process and decision-making process is an excellent way to get the best information and make the best decisions.One, if others aren’t wanting to find contrary information, you being the volunteering source will often come off very negatively. See if there is something you can learn from it.

In many cases, being unsure is the most accurate representation of reality. We can also use our future and past self as accountabilities as well.The tendency to favor our present-self at the expense of our future self is what is called It’s easy to spend all our money now without thought of future retirement.When we think about past decisions, and the later consequences they had, and the consequences we will have in the future fo the decision and consider them, we are more likely to make better decisions.Using regret can also help you – regret before the decision. 43:21. When making decisions under uncertainty, in areas like business and investing, it is helpful to think in probabilities and scenarios. Copyright 2019 Radiant Hope, LLC | All Rights Reserved |We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. Annie Duke notes that undertaking outcome-blind analysis, where possible, can help us to evaluate decision-making quality with less risk of resulting. However, in-the-moment thinking can sometimes lead to irrational or impulsive decisions. In her book, Duke suggests that it is helpful to first understand the nature and features of bets. In poker, this is commonly referred to as tilt.Dan Ariely has shared similar observations on decision making traps in his book Good processes should lead to good habits and allow for good results to compound over time. Like regret, the intensity of such emotions can hamper perspective and the quality of decision making.By preempting these emotions and anticipating the potential for negative outcomes, we can treat ourselves more compassionately after a poor outcome.

Path-dependent and in-the-moment emotions are not always rational or conducive to sound decision making. We don’t like to be wrong.In fact the “smarter” you are, the more prone you are to blind spot bias. applying resulting to other people’s decisions and outcomes). However, winning and losing in such games provide only weak signals of our decision quality. Duke points out that our decision-making processes are often accompanied by a variety of heuristics and biases. He is an author, blogger, foster parent, and avid learner. When bad things happen, we blame luck.We do this with other people as well. Good decision making is a cornerstone of financial independence.

Sonja Lyubomirsky, a professor at the University of California, in one study found that for people, what determines the greatest variance in happiness is how we are doing comparatively.That’s where “keeping up with the Jones” and so on comes from.Well, when someone else does well, it can be easy for us to attribute it to luck; if they do bad, well it’s their own durn fault.The main problem with this bias is that it keeps us from learning and making better decisions. With scenario planning, you map out the different scenarios, or possibilities, that could come from that decision (bet).One effective tool for planning ahead (and making good decisions toward it) is to backstack – what event/outcome do you want to happen?Then work backward: what would have to happen to make that happen, and keep going back to your initial decision/action.A premortem is a tool that helps you find out what could go wrong before it goes wrong.With a premortem, you ask: It’s 1 year (or however long) in the future. Ask yourself how you would feel about the decision if your past-self made it.Thinking about regret in front of the decision not only can help you make better decisions but help you treat yourself more compassionately after the fact.One method to view decisions is 10-10-10.

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